Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
