It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
